Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?
Last captured price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$20.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide detailed criteria for what constitutes a qualifying departure, requiring an official announcement directly from Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or their authorized representatives, with consensus reporting used only if an unannounced formal exit occurs before term completion. Several specific exclusions apply: media rumors, conditional resignation offers, jokes, temporary leaves of absence, and departure at the natural expiration of a scheduled term do not count. Additionally, any qualifying departure announcement must be framed to take effect within 18 months of being made. If the individual never officially assumes office or remains through the deadline, the market resolves to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kevin Warsh's departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve is officially announced or confirmed prior to the end of June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET that Warsh has ceased or will cease to serve as Fed Chair. The announced departure must be intended to take effect within 18 months and prior to any scheduled term end date; resignations, removals, and other departures qualify, but temporary leaves, conditional statements, unaccepted resignation offers, and media rumors do not. The market also resolves to Yes if Warsh formally leaves before his term ends without an announcement and credible reporting confirms it by the deadline. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement or confirmed departure occurs by the deadline. Official statements from Warsh and the Federal Reserve decide the outcome, with a consensus of credible reporting acting as a secondary source.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Departure must be officially announced or confirmed by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting.
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