Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

This event tracks whether Kevin Warsh's departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by specific target dates. Each market corresponds to a distinct calendar deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a ladder of time thresholds. Because an announcement occurring by an earlier date also occurs before any later date, more than one market can resolve Yes if an earlier deadline is met.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date that Warsh has ceased or will cease to serve as Fed Chair, intended to be effective within 18 months and prior to the scheduled end of his term. If he formally leaves before the end of his scheduled term without an announcement, a consensus of credible reporting confirming the departure by the deadline also resolves the market to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No.

Key dates

• First deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
• Second deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC