Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
14.5¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the condition required for resolution, specifying that any 1-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair with a final low price equal to or below $60,000 will trigger a positive outcome. A single specific data source, timeframe, and URL are designated, eliminating source ambiguity or decider discretion. The resolution window explicitly runs from market creation until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, leaving minimal room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $60,000 or below by December 31, 2026, based strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final Low price equal to or lower than $60,000 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if the price does not drop to $60,000 or below within that timeframe. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data decides the outcome. Price action before market creation, prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, and spot markets are disregarded.
Key dates
- End date: — 11:59 PM ET on the final day for the price threshold to be reached
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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