Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?
Current price
38.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38.5%
$24.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the winning conditions for the ME-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission named as a formal fallback if reporting is ambiguous. The rules also specify clear fallback mechanics for handling independent or third-party candidates by evaluating ballot affiliation or stated caucus intent once all House races are conclusively called. Because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, final tabulations can take some time after election day, but the rule structure leaves little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins Maine's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. A candidate without a ballot affiliation to Democrats or Republicans will be classified by their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the ME-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, or if an unaffiliated candidate has most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves to No if the winner is affiliated with the Republican Party or another non-Democratic affiliation. The election outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official United States government results reported by the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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