Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?
Current price
62.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 62.5%
$12.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 Maine's 2nd Congressional District election. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude to the market decider, but includes an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results are ambiguous. Maine uses ranked-choice voting for congressional elections, which can delay official tabulations. The rules clearly define how third-party or independent candidates will be categorized based on their declared caucus intent at the time all House races are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins Maine's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates unaffiliated on the ballot who express intent to caucus with Republicans.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the ME-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans if unaffiliated on the ballot. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or expresses intent to caucus with the Democratic Party or another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
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