Will the Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves on a straightforward, officially tracked federal referendum in Switzerland.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves on a straightforward, officially tracked federal referendum in Switzerland. Resolution relies on credible reporting or directly on official certified results from the Swiss Federal Chancellery. Clear fallback clauses address potential rescheduling and establish an objective cutoff tied to the next referendum date if results remain unresolved.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
50%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) is approved in Switzerland's popular vote scheduled for November 29, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the listed referendum issue, or its federal counter-proposal where applicable, is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. The market resolves to No if the issue is not approved. The market also resolves to No if the definitive results are not known by the date the subsequent Swiss referendum is scheduled to be held. If the vote is officially rescheduled, rules apply to the new ballot. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official certified results published by Swiss government authorities (such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery) deciding any ambiguity. Subsequent litigation or implementation issues are disregarded.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·