Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly evaluates whether the specific Swiss popular initiative or an official counter-proposal meets the legal approval threshold.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly evaluates whether the specific Swiss popular initiative or an official counter-proposal meets the legal approval threshold. Position holders should be aware of a specific clause stating that if a federal counter-proposal passes, the market resolves to Yes even if the initiative itself fails. Additionally, if the vote is rescheduled, resolution rolls over to the new date, but if results remain unknown by the subsequent scheduled Swiss referendum, the market defaults to No. The primary source relies on a consensus of credible reporting with clear fallback to official certified data from the Swiss Federal Chancellery.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
75%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Swiss popular initiative 'For a restriction on fireworks' (Issue 2) is approved in the popular vote scheduled for November 29, 2026.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the listed popular initiative or its federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified vote, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. It resolves to No if the measure is not approved. It also resolves to No if definitive results are not known by the date of the next scheduled Swiss referendum. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the rules apply to the new ballot. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official certified results from Swiss government authorities (such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery or ch.ch) used if there is ambiguity. Subsequent litigation or implementation failures are disregarded.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities (such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery) in the event of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·