IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying physical visit, who counts as an official, and explicitly exclude surrounding areas like Pickaxe Mountain as well as virtual inspections.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying physical visit, who counts as an official, and explicitly exclude surrounding areas like Pickaxe Mountain as well as virtual inspections. The resolution depends on the IAEA or a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some discretion regarding which news reports are accepted if the IAEA does not issue a formal public statement on inspection specifics. A specific year is not written directly in the body text beside December 31, but the context clearly ties to the deadline in the title. Participants should monitor whether access confirmation comes via official IAEA statements or general media reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
15%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether official IAEA representatives physically visit at least one of three specified Iranian nuclear facilities—Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz—by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if one or more IAEA officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility between market creation and December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. IAEA officials include inspectors, staff, and the Director General acting in an official capacity. The visit requires physical presence within the recognized boundaries of these sites; visits to Pickaxe Mountain, visits to other Iranian sites, and virtual inspections do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such physical visit occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·