IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the qualifying locations, the requirement for physical presence within recognized boundaries, and an explicit exclusion for Pickaxe Mountain. There is also a precise definition of eligible IAEA personnel and a clear cutoff time. However, resolution relies on both the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting without detailing how conflicting reports would be prioritized or how unconfirmed inspector movements would be verified if official IAEA public statements omit specific site names.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market tracks whether official IAEA personnel physically visit any of three specific Iranian nuclear facilities—Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz—by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if one or more IAEA officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility between market creation and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying officials include IAEA inspectors, staff, or the Director General acting in an official capacity. A qualifying visit requires physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of these three sites; Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of Natanz, and visits to other sites or virtual inspections do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Cutoff time is 11:59 PM ET for qualifying visits.
Resolution source
The IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.