Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or specific designated media outlet, leaving the final call to subjective interpretation of news coverage.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or specific designated media outlet, leaving the final call to subjective interpretation of news coverage. While the rules provide clear boundaries excluding general civil unrest or non-state revolutions, participants should note the specific restriction regarding foiled plots: Iranian government announcements of broken-up coup schemes or arrests will not trigger a positive resolution unless independent reporting confirms an actual attempt was executed, which may create edge cases if events remain shrouded in state secrecy.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026. Non-state revolutionary actions, protests, or government claims of foiled plots without independent confirmation and attempted execution do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying coup attempt must be a coordinated effort by military, security forces, or state actors to overthrow or seize control of the government. Non-state revolutionary actions, isolated protests, general unrest, and foiled plots without attempted execution do not count. Claims by the Iranian government of foiled attempts count only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize them as coup attempts. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. The resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·