Iran coup attempt by...?

This event tracks whether a coup attempt will occur in Iran across different timeframe horizons, measuring whether qualifying military, security, or state-actor efforts to overthrow or seize control of the Iranian government take place before specified year-end cutoff dates.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a ladder of chronological deadlines. Because each market covers the timeframe from market creation up to its specific end date, an event that triggers a Yes resolution for an earlier deadline will also trigger a Yes resolution for subsequent deadlines. Therefore, multiple markets can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran between market creation and the specified deadline (11:59 PM ET on December 31 of 2026 or 2027). A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated, deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, protests, or general unrest alone do not qualify. Iranian government claims of foiled attempts require credible independent sources to explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt; disrupted plots without attempted execution do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• December 31, 2026 deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET
• December 31, 2027 deadline: Dec 31, 2027 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

A consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 22 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC