Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the calculation formula, the threshold, and the exact evaluation moment at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, along with a definitive expiration resolving to No if no token launches before the end of 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the calculation formula, the threshold, and the exact evaluation moment at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, along with a definitive expiration resolving to No if no token launches before the end of 2027. However, the resolution source is vaguely defined as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, oracle, or data aggregator. This leaves the resolving authority discretion to determine which venue had the highest liquidity and how to measure the exact spot price at the target timestamp.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
38%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Base's governance token exceeds $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than $1B one day after launch. To count as a launch, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. One day after launch is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $1B at that time, or if Base does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·