Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a precise snapshot time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and an ultimate expiration date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a precise snapshot time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and an ultimate expiration date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named price oracle or specific exchange, which requires discretion to identify the primary market at snapshot time. Additionally, in crypto markets with dynamic tokenomics, total supply figures can vary across data aggregators depending on whether unvested or unminted tokens are included in the fully diluted valuation calculation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
38%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Base's governance token exceeds $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. The valuation is calculated by multiplying total token supply by the token price, and the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. The market resolves to No if the valuation is not above $500 million at that time, or if Base does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·