Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$58.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules define a qualifying meeting as direct personal interaction such as an exchange of words or a handshake, explicitly excluding mere physical proximity. However, resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible news reporting rather than a single named source or official register. The text also includes template copy-paste artifacts, such as an irrelevant clause defining Gulf states and a specific resolution label for no meeting occurring before December 31, 2026. Furthermore, the rules do not define territorial boundaries, leaving potential ambiguity if a meeting were to occur in contested or occupied regions of Ukraine.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin takes place in Ukraine by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the next qualifying in-person encounter where Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin interact takes place in Ukraine on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying interactions require an exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction, whereas merely standing nearby, making eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves No if their next qualifying meeting occurs in another location, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- End date: — Meeting must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.