Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Last captured price
77¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 77%
$302.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market depends on whether the very next in-person encounter between the two leaders takes place in China before the end of 2026. The rules specifically require a direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, conversation, or exchange of words, explicitly excluding mere proximity, eye contact, or co-presence in the same room. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official diplomatic record or government registry, meaning deciders will evaluate media accounts to confirm both the location and whether an interaction occurred. If the leaders meet in any other country first, or if no meeting occurs before the deadline, the outcome will resolve negatively.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will take place in China. Resolution requires direct personal interaction rather than mere physical proximity or shared attendance at an event.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin next meet in person in China before the market deadline. A qualifying meeting requires a direct personal interaction, such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation; merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a location other than China, or if no meeting occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Deadline for a qualifying meeting to occur.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.