Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?
Current price
3.85¢
+1.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$109.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market evaluates whether the next in-person interaction between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin occurs in the United States before December 31, 2026. Clear definitions outline what constitutes an encounter, distinguishing direct personal interactions like handshakes or direct conversations from passive presence in the same room. However, resolution depends entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government record or designated registry, requiring the market decider to evaluate news coverage. Additionally, because the market specifies the location of their next meeting, any qualifying encounter in another country before a US visit will permanently settle the outcome against the US.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin occurs in the United States before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin next meet in person in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires a direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, an exchange of words, or a conversation, whereas merely being in the same room or in proximity does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting takes place anywhere outside the United States, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline for the qualifying meeting to take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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