Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$56.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official diplomatic ledger or designated authority, requiring market evaluators to judge what constitutes the prevailing narrative across media outlets. The rules distinguish a qualifying meeting from mere proximity by requiring an in-person exchange of words, handshake, or direct conversation, which can lead to borderline interpretations if the individuals briefly cross paths at an international summit without clear audio or video evidence of direct engagement. Additionally, the rules include boilerplate text defining Gulf states and outcome options from a broader multi-choice market, though the core criteria for evaluating an encounter in Japan remain straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin occurs in Japan before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have their next qualifying meeting in Japan before the deadline. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present in person and directly interact through spoken words, a handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction, while mere proximity, eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves No if their next qualifying meeting takes place anywhere other than Japan, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for a qualifying meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to occur.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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