Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$77K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official source, leaving room for interpretation regarding whether brief encounters or interactions at multilateral summits meet the threshold of an exchange of words or direct conversation. Additionally, the rules appear to be drafted from a multi-choice market format regarding meeting locations, though the question is framed as a specific yes-no inquiry about Finland.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin takes place in Finland before the end of 2026. A qualifying meeting requires direct personal interaction rather than mere shared presence in the same room.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have their next qualifying in-person meeting in Finland by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A meeting qualifies if the individuals are both present and have a clear personal interaction, such as a handshake, direct conversation, or exchange of words; mere physical proximity, eye contact, or presence in the same venue without interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in any other location, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Market end date: — The deadline by which a qualifying meeting must occur.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.