Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
Last captured price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$83.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government record or designated registry, granting the resolver discretion to determine whether media reports confirm a qualifying meeting took place in Belarus. The rules explicitly specify that mere proximity or being in the same room is insufficient, requiring direct interaction such as an exchange of words or a handshake. There is also a boilerplate clause defining Gulf states that appears to be carried over from a multi-option market template, though it does not contradict the core requirement for the encounter to occur in Belarus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, occurring by December 31, 2026, takes place in Belarus. The market defines a meeting as a direct personal interaction.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin occurs in Belarus. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both individuals are present and interact directly, such as through an exchange of words, a handshake, or a direct conversation. Merely being in proximity or the same room without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves No if the next qualifying meeting occurs in any location other than Belarus. The market resolves to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin occurs anywhere by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — The market will resolve to 'No meeting by December 31' if no qualifying meeting occurs by this date and time.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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