Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on which party wins the most seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies during the June 2027 legislative election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on which party wins the most seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies during the June 2027 legislative election. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to the official results from the National Electoral Institute (INE) if any ambiguity arises. Detailed tie-breaking rules are specified: ties are decided first by total valid votes and second by the alphabetical order of the party abbreviations. A timeout clause is also present, resolving the market to Other if definitive results are not available by March 31, 2028.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) wins the most seats in the 2027 Mexican legislative election, with specific tie-breaking rules based on votes and alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies in the 2027 legislative election. The market resolves No if any other political party wins the greatest number of seats. If there is a tie between multiple parties for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in the election. If that also results in a tie, the market resolves in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. The market resolves Other if the definitive results of the election are not known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, or, if ambiguous, on official results from the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute.
Resolution source
National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·