Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
Current price
73.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 73.5%
$57.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is clearly determined by official information from FIDE regarding the winner of the 2026 World Chess Championship. Participants should note the early resolution clause: the market can resolve to No before the championship match takes place if it becomes mathematically or officially impossible for the named player to qualify and win under FIDE regulations. Additionally, if the event is cancelled, postponed, or unresolved past June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other rather than a standard binary outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 World Chess Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 World Chess Championship per the rules of FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Javokhir Sindarov will win the 2026 World Chess Championship.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Javokhir Sindarov wins the 2026 World Chess Championship. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Sindarov to win the championship according to FIDE rules. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that deadline. Official information from FIDE decides the outcome, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the championship is cancelled, postponed, partially completed, or lacks a declared winner after this time.
Resolution source
FIDE official information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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