Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
Current price
26.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 26.5%
$63K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is clearly defined by official results from the International Chess Federation (FIDE) regarding the 2026 World Chess Championship. Holders should note the early resolution provision, which allows a resolution to No before the event finishes if a player is definitively eliminated or ruled out under FIDE regulations. Additionally, if the championship is postponed beyond June 30, 2027, or cancelled, the market specifies a resolution to Other rather than waiting indefinitely or voiding.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 World Chess Championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 World Chess Championship per the rules of FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 World Chess Championship tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gukesh Dommaraju will win the 2026 World Chess Championship.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gukesh Dommaraju wins the 2026 World Chess Championship. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for him to win the championship according to FIDE rules. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed, or partially completed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that time. Official information from FIDE serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Tournament completion deadline: — Market resolves to Other if cancelled, postponed, partially completed, or no winner is declared by this cutoff.
Resolution source
FIDE or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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