Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.8¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.8%
$79.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes taking office as Prime Minister, requiring both formal presidential appointment and a successful vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. It explicitly excludes interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who lack a parliamentary vote of confidence, removing a common point of confusion in parliamentary transitions. The end date is fixed at December 31, 2027, with an unambiguous resolution to 'Other' if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by then. While secondary resolution permits a consensus of credible reporting alongside official government data, the constitutional criteria for assuming office in Romania are objective and public.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Leonardo Badea will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by the specified deadline. Interim or caretaker prime ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Leonardo Badea officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET after being formally appointed by the President and receiving a vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. The market resolves to No if another individual meets these criteria first. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward resolution. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Romania serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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