Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$262.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both formal appointment by the President of Romania and a successful vote of confidence in Parliament to form a new government. It explicitly excludes interim or caretaker prime ministers who do not receive parliamentary confirmation. The primary resolution relies on official government sources, with credible reporting as a secondary backup, leaving minimal ambiguity regarding the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Siegfried Mureșan will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. Resolution explicitly excludes interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Siegfried Mureșan is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, having been formally appointed by the President and receiving a vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. The market resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office under these conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The outcome is determined by official information from the Government of Romania, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as an alternative.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time by which a new Prime Minister must officially take office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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