Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$104.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the constitutional requirements for someone to count as the next Prime Minister of Romania: formal appointment by the President followed by a vote of confidence from Parliament. Explicit exclusions are made for interim or caretaker appointments that lack parliamentary approval. Resolution relies on official Romanian government announcements, with secondary verification from credible media consensus. The market provides a clear final expiration date of December 31, 2027, if no qualifying government forms before then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Victor Ponta will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. Resolution requires a formal presidential appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Victor Ponta is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, having been formally appointed by the President and confirmed by a vote of confidence in Parliament. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other (or No) if another individual meets these conditions first, or if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which a qualifying Prime Minister must officially take office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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