Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$100.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly outline the constitutional prerequisites needed for an individual to count, specifically requiring formal presidential appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence, while explicitly excluding unconfirmed caretaker or interim prime ministers. Resolution relies primarily on official Romanian government announcements, with a fallback to consensus reporting if necessary, and sets a clear expiration date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Traian Basescu will be the next individual to officially take office as the Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Traian Basescu officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania next by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, after being formally appointed by the President and receiving a vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these conditions first. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined via official information from the Government of Romania, with credible reporting consensus as an alternative.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which the next Prime Minister must take office under the specified conditions.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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