Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.1¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$107.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines clear constitutional criteria for what constitutes taking office, requiring both formal presidential appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence to form a new government. Interim or caretaker appointments lacking a confidence vote are explicitly excluded. The primary resolution source is official information from the Romanian government, supplemented by credible reporting if necessary, leaving little room for subjective interpretation or disputed outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dragoș Pîslaru will become the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania. The market has an 'Other' resolution if no qualifying individual takes office by the specified deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Dragoș Pîslaru officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania. To count, he must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, leading to the official formation of a new government. The market resolves No if someone other than Dragoș Pîslaru officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania under the same conditions. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count. The market resolves Other if no individual officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, under the specified conditions. The Government of Romania provides the primary resolution information, with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback.
Key dates
- Market close: — If no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by this date, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Resolution source
official information from the Government of Romania
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