Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$127.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the constitutional requirements necessary for a candidate to qualify, requiring both formal presidential appointment and a successful parliamentary vote of confidence to form a new government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers without a parliamentary confidence vote are explicitly excluded from qualifying. The deadline is set to December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if no qualifying government forms by then. Official government records serve as the primary source of truth, alongside a fallback to credible media consensus, leaving little ambiguity regarding what qualifies as taking office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandru Rogobete will officially become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alexandru Rogobete is formally appointed by the President of Romania, wins a parliamentary vote of confidence, and officially assumes office as Prime Minister by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves No if another individual fulfills these criteria first. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these conditions by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Romania serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting accepted as an alternative.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — A qualifying Prime Minister must officially take office by this date and time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting.
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