Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
1.05¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.05%
$434.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both formal presidential appointment and a vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. Interim or caretaker appointments lacking a parliamentary vote of confidence are explicitly excluded from qualifying. The primary source is official information from the Government of Romania, with a consensus of credible reporting acting as a backup. The rules provide a clear deadline through December 31, 2027, and outline what happens if no qualifying government forms.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandru Nazare becomes the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. To qualify, an individual must be formally appointed and confirmed by a parliamentary vote of confidence, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointees who lack parliamentary confirmation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alexandru Nazare is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, requiring formal appointment by the President of Romania and a vote of confidence from Parliament. The market resolves No if another individual officially assumes the office under these conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Romania, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania or a consensus of credible reporting
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