Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$112.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office by requiring both formal presidential appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence, explicitly disqualifying interim or caretaker appointments that lack parliamentary investiture. The primary resolution source is official documentation from the Romanian government, supplemented by consensus reporting. There is a precise longstop deadline of December 31, 2027, with clear fallback instructions if no individual assumes the office under these criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Șerban Matei will be the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Șerban Matei officially assumes office as the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, requiring formal appointment by the President of Romania and a parliamentary vote of confidence forming a new government. The market resolves to No if another individual meets these criteria first. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence does not count. If no Prime Minister takes office under these conditions by the deadline, the market resolves to Other. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Romania or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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