Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Last captured price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$92.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the constitutional requirements for someone to qualify as Prime Minister, explicitly requiring formal appointment by the President and a parliamentary vote of confidence. Interim and caretaker appointments lacking parliamentary approval are explicitly excluded. The primary resolution source is official government information, with a clear expiration date of December 31, 2027, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lucian Croitoru will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. Resolution requires both presidential appointment and parliamentary confirmation, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker leaders without a vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lucian Croitoru is the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, which requires formal appointment by the President of Romania and a vote of confidence from Parliament resulting in a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count. The market resolves to No if another qualifying individual assumes the office first. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of Romania, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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