Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$62.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both formal appointment by the President of Romania and a vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. Caretaker and interim prime ministers who do not secure a confidence vote are explicitly excluded. The primary resolution source is official Romanian government information, backed by credible reporting, and there is a clear expiration cutoff on December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cătălin Drulă becomes the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. To qualify, an appointee must receive a parliamentary vote of confidence, explicitly excluding caretaker or interim leaders who lack one.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Cătălin Drulă officially becomes the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, having been formally appointed by the President and approved by a parliamentary vote of confidence. The market resolves to No if another individual meets these conditions and assumes office first. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these conditions by the deadline. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. Official information from the Government of Romania or a consensus of credible reporting will be used to resolve the market.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Cutoff time for a qualifying Prime Minister to assume office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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