Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the constitutional requirements for taking office: formal appointment by the President of Romania followed by a successful vote of confidence in Parliament. Interim and caretaker appointments lacking parliamentary confirmation are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements with a backup of credible media consensus, and a clear deadline of December 31, 2027 is established.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandru Rafila becomes the next officially appointed Prime Minister of Romania with parliamentary confidence by the end of 2027. The market's resolution depends on formal appointment and a vote of confidence, excluding interim officeholders.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alexandru Rafila is formally appointed as Prime Minister of Romania by the President and receives a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. The market resolves No if a different individual is formally appointed as Prime Minister of Romania by the President and receives a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution. The market resolves Other if no individual officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania with a parliamentary vote of confidence by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution is determined by official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — The deadline for a Prime Minister to take office for resolution.
Resolution source
official information from the Government of Romania
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