Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$67.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish the legal process required for resolution: an individual must be formally appointed by the President and secure a vote of confidence from Parliament to establish a new government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers lacking a confidence vote are explicitly excluded from qualifying. Official information from the Romanian government serves as the primary determination source, with credible reporting available as a backup. The terms and conditions are straightforward with little ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marcel Ciolacu will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, requiring formal presidential appointment and parliamentary confirmation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Marcel Ciolacu officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, having been formally appointed by the President and confirmed by a vote of confidence from Parliament. The market resolves No if another individual meets these criteria and takes office first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no qualified Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The outcome is determined using official information from the Government of Romania or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Latest time by which the next Prime Minister must officially assume office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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