Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.9%
$244K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly outline the specific constitutional requirements needed for a Prime Minister to qualify, specifically requiring formal appointment by the President, a parliamentary vote of confidence, and the formation of a new government. Caretaker and interim appointments without parliamentary approval are explicitly excluded. Resolution relies on official government information with fallback to credible reporting, and a clear long-term deadline of December 31, 2027 is established if no new permanent Prime Minister takes office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ilie Bolojan will become the next Prime Minister of Romania. A notable condition is that interim or caretaker Prime Ministers are excluded unless they receive a formal parliamentary vote of confidence.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ilie Bolojan officially assumes office as Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, requiring formal appointment by the President and a vote of confidence from Parliament to form a new government. The market resolves to No if another individual meets these conditions first. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these rules by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Romania serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the next Prime Minister to take office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting.
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