Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.35¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$102.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both formal presidential appointment and a successful vote of confidence in Parliament to form a new government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers without parliamentary confirmation are explicitly excluded. The market relies on official Romanian government records, supplemented by credible reporting if needed, and has a clear longstop date of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether George Simion becomes the next officially appointed Prime Minister of Romania, confirmed by a parliamentary vote of confidence, before the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if George Simion officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. To count, he must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, leading to the official formation of a new government. The market resolves No if any other individual officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania under the same conditions by December 31, 2027. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count. The market resolves Other if no individual officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania under these conditions by December 31, 2027. Resolution will be determined by official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — The deadline for a Prime Minister to take office for resolution.
Resolution source
official information from the Government of Romania
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