PolymarketCloses · in 440 daysPart of Next Prime Minister of Romania? →

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Current price

0.6¢

−0.15¢ · 24h

Implied probability 0.6%
$695K total volume · YES/NO

7-day range 0.45–14.6¢

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment

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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes taking office, requiring both formal presidential appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence resulting in a new government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers without parliamentary confirmation are explicitly excluded. The primary source is official government information, backed by a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, and a fixed deadline of December 31, 2027 is provided.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Med
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

Liquidity

Medium tradability

Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.

Book depth $41.9K within 5¢ of mid
Price history range

Price history

Market price
0¢0.5¢1¢1.5¢2¢14:1622:1506:1314:11
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢Oct 10Oct 12Oct 15Oct 17
0¢20¢40¢60¢Aug 3Aug 28Sep 22Oct 17

Why it moved

Down 11 points · 13 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC

News

Cited news

The price fell from 0.1425 to 0.034. A likely driver was reporting by world-today-news.com stating that PSD is expected to join a cabinet under Luca Niculescu with potential support from PNL and UDMR.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 444 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: Luca Niculescu (up), Alexandru Nazare (down).

AI-generated · 14 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules history

Rules history is not displayed yet.

Market explained

This market measures whether Sorin Grindeanu will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. Resolution specifically excludes interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Sorin Grindeanu officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, having been formally appointed by the President of Romania and receiving a vote of confidence from Parliament. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not count. The market resolves to No if another person officially assumes the office with parliamentary confirmation first. If no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to Other. The outcome is determined by official information from the Government of Romania, with a consensus of credible reporting used as an alternative.

Key dates

  • Resolution deadline: — Latest time for a qualifying Prime Minister to take office before the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

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