Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$188.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly stated, requiring formal presidential appointment and a parliamentary vote of confidence that results in the official formation of a government. Interim or caretaker prime ministers without a confidence vote are explicitly excluded. The primary source is official Romanian government information, with credible reporting as a secondary reference, and there is a clear cutoff deadline of December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cătălin Predoiu becomes the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. To qualify, an appointee must secure a parliamentary vote of confidence, excluding standard interim or caretaker appointments.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Cătălin Predoiu officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, following formal appointment by the President and a vote of confidence from Parliament resulting in the official formation of a new government. The market resolves No if another individual meets these criteria first. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not qualify. The market resolves to Other if no individual takes office under these conditions by the deadline. Official information from the Government of Romania serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market Expiration: — Deadline for a qualifying Prime Minister to take office.
Resolution source
Government of Romania
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