Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$72.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the constitutional requirements necessary for resolution: the individual must be formally appointed by the President and receive a parliamentary vote of confidence to form a government. Caretaker or interim prime ministers who do not pass a confidence vote are explicitly excluded. The market relies primarily on official announcements from the Romanian government, with credible reporting as an alternative reference. The deadline provides an explicit long-term cutoff date with an explicit default resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lucian Isar will become the next Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027. Resolution excludes interim or caretaker Prime Ministers who do not receive a vote of confidence from Parliament.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Lucian Isar is formally appointed by the President of Romania, receives a vote of confidence from Parliament, officially forms a new government, and assumes office as the next Prime Minister by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers without a parliamentary vote of confidence do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual meets these conditions and assumes office first. The market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Romania or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Deadline for a qualifying Prime Minister to take office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting
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