Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?
Current price
0.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.9%
$9.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying arrest or detention, detailing specific actions like physical custody, formal booking, surrendering to an arrest warrant, or house arrest, while explicitly excluding unexecuted warrants, questioning, and mere indictments. The deadline is clearly specified as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Although resolution permits a consensus of credible reporting in addition to official government and law enforcement releases, the granular inclusion and exclusion criteria provide clear boundaries, making an unexpected resolution outcome unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Joe Biden will be arrested or placed under qualifying detention before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Joe Biden is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying scenarios include physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntary surrender in response to an arrest warrant or with an attorney at a police station or courthouse, formal booking or processing following detention, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if an arrest does not occur by the deadline. Being named in an indictment, having an unexecuted arrest warrant, being questioned without arrest, or experiencing brief detention without arrest does not qualify for a Yes resolution. Resolution is decided by official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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