Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
Current price
7.15¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.15%
$188.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what actions constitute a qualifying arrest or detention, including explicit exclusions for scenarios like being questioned, indicted, or issued an unexecuted warrant. The deadline is precise with an exact date, time, and timezone. While official law enforcement records serve as the primary source, the rules permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, which introduces a minor degree of decider judgment but is standard for high-profile public events.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthony Fauci will be arrested or placed in qualifying detention before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthony Fauci is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntary surrender in response to an arrest warrant, formal booking or processing, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering at a police station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying arrest occurs by the deadline. The outcome is determined using official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Anthony Fauci must be arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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