Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
Current price
1.7¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$30.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear and specific criteria for what constitutes a qualifying arrest or detention, including explicit exclusions for unexecuted warrants, brief investigative detentions, and indictments without custody. The deadline is firmly set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies primarily on official law enforcement or government records, with a consensus of credible media reporting permitted as a backup. There are minimal structural ambiguities or unusual clauses that would lead to unexpected resolution outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Barack Obama will be arrested or placed under qualifying detention prior to 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering in response to an arrest warrant, being formally booked or processed, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering at a station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, brief non-arrest detentions, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying arrest takes place by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from arresting government and law enforcement authorities, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Qualifying arrest must occur by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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