Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
Current price
2.55¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$42.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria provide a detailed, explicit breakdown of what constitutes an arrest (such as physical custody, formal booking, or voluntary surrender under warrant) versus what does not (such as unexecuted warrants, questioning, or mere indictment). The end date is set precisely to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official law enforcement or government statements, though secondary reliance on a consensus of credible reporting introduces some minor discretion if official confirmation is delayed or absent.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom is arrested or placed into a qualifying form of detention prior to 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering to an arrest warrant, being booked or processed, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning or interviews, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The arrest or qualifying detention must take place by this time.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.