Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027?
Current price
1.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$4.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and comprehensive criteria defining what qualifies as an arrest, including physical custody, voluntary surrender under warrant, formal booking, or house arrest, while explicitly excluding mere questioning, unexecuted warrants, or brief detentions. The deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is unambiguous. While the resolver may rely on a consensus of credible reporting alongside official government statements, the detailed inclusions and exclusions leave little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether former U.S. President Bill Clinton is arrested or taken into qualifying legal custody before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bill Clinton is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering in response to an arrest warrant, being formally booked or processed, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if these events do not occur by the deadline. Unexecuted arrest warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not count. The primary resolution source is official government or law enforcement information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest time for a qualifying arrest to occur.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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