Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?
Current price
1.85¢
−0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$36.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and detailed criteria for what constitutes a qualifying arrest, explicitly listing scenarios such as physical custody, voluntary surrender, booking, and house arrest. They also clearly specify what does not qualify, excluding unexecuted warrants, mere indictments, and non-arrest questioning. Resolution relies primarily on official government and law enforcement releases, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used if needed. The end date and time are clearly established as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hillary Clinton will be arrested or placed in qualifying detention prior to the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hillary Clinton is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody by law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering due to an arrest warrant, being formally booked or processed, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering at a station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if she is not arrested by the deadline. Non-qualifying events include unexecuted arrest warrants, brief detentions without arrest, questioning or interviews without arrest, and indictments without arrest. Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Hillary Clinton must be arrested by this time for the market to resolve Yes.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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