Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly define how market capitalization is calculated using the total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the initial day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria clearly define how market capitalization is calculated using the total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing price on the initial day of trading. Resolution relies primarily on the official listing page of the primary stock exchange where the company lists, with standard fallback provisions. The rules also explicitly account for edge cases by including a tie-breaking rule for values landing on exact bracket boundaries, specific handling for interrupted or abbreviated trading sessions, and a definitive resolution outcome if no public offering takes place before the December 31, 2027 deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
43%
chance▲ +5.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization is between $1.2T and $1.5T at market close on its initial public offering (IPO) day by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, and its market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day is between 1.2T and 1.5T. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization falls outside this range upon IPO. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO occurs by the deadline. Market capitalization equals shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price. If the first trading day is interrupted, the abbreviated session's official close is used, or the next day with an official close. Resolution is decided using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·