Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated on the first day of trading using shares outstanding and the official closing price from the primary exchange.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated on the first day of trading using shares outstanding and the official closing price from the primary exchange. Interrupted trading sessions and circuit breakers are explicitly accounted for with standard rollover instructions. Note that if no IPO occurs before December 31, 2027, the market resolves to a designated 'No IPO' outcome rather than treating the lack of a listing as a sub-0.6T valuation. If the primary exchange does not display the requisite data, a fallback to another reliable source is permitted.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization is less than 0.6T at the close of its initial public offering day by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic conducts an IPO by December 31, 2027, and its market capitalization at market close on its first day of trading is less than 0.6T. Market capitalization is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If the value falls exactly on the threshold between brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No IPO by December 31, 2027 if no IPO takes place by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the official close of the abbreviated session applies, or the next trading day with an official close if none is published. Resolution is decided by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·