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PoliticsCloses · in 155 days$52.3K volumePart of: 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? →

Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether François Hollande appears on the official first-round candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council for the 2027 presidential election.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves clearly based on whether François Hollande appears on the official first-round candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council for the 2027 presidential election. Clear fallback provisions specify that if no list is published, the physical ballot governs, and if no list is published and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'No'. Although credible reporting is mentioned as an alternative, official publication by a constitutional authority leaves minimal room for subjective interpretation.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Last captured price

32%

chance

▲ +6 pts · 24h

Yes32¢
No68¢

François Hollande · Yes · 1MO 26.5 H 37.0 L 25.0 C 32.0+5.5 (+20.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC

The probability rose from 26% to 36%, but available data does not provide sufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 100% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 156 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Teddy Riner (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether François Hollande will be an official candidate on the ballot for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if François Hollande is included on the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. If no official list is published beforehand, it resolves to Yes if he appears on the ballot when the election takes place. The market resolves to No otherwise, including if no candidate list is published and the election does not occur by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary source.

Resolution source

The official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·