Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has clear and straightforward resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
This market has clear and straightforward resolution mechanics. It relies primarily on the official list of first-round candidates published by the French Constitutional Council prior to the election, with direct presence on the ballot as a fallback if no list is issued. A clear timeout clause is provided, resolving to No if no list is published and the election is not held by June 30, 2027. While credible reporting is mentioned as an auxiliary resolution option, the direct reliance on the Constitutional Council's definitive list leaves minimal room for ambiguity or dispute.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
27%
chance▼ −2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bruno Retailleau is officially included on the first-round ballot for the 2027 French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bruno Retailleau is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. The market resolves to No if he is not included on the official list. If no official list is published beforehand, resolution depends on whether he actually appears on the ballot when the election occurs. If no list is published and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The primary deciding source is the official candidate list from the French Constitutional Council, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.
Resolution source
The official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·