Will Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the next person officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy before the end of 2028.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the next person officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy before the end of 2028. The rules clearly exclude interim or caretaker prime ministers, which prevents temporary appointments from triggering resolution. If no new prime minister assumes office by the deadline, the market resolves to Other. Official Italian government records serve as the primary source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting, leaving minimal room for dispute over whether a formal swearing-in took place.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Carlo Calenda will be the next person to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028. It excludes interim or caretaker Prime Ministers from qualifying.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Carlo Calenda is officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if another person officially assumes the office first, or if no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister takes office by the December 31, 2028 deadline. Resolution is determined using official information from the Government of Italy or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·